Analyst Goykhman: “The lesser evil is to keep the key rate high”

The decision of the Bank of Russia was expected, but still, judging by the reaction, all participants in the financial market were happy with this outcome. Is this optimism justified and how will the actions of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation affect the economy and the wallets of compatriots, MK found out from Mark Goykhman, an analyst at the Capital Skills Financial Academy.

"The situation is twofold"

— Why does the market feel relieved after the key rate was kept at the level where it has been for six months?

— The Central Bank's decision was predictable. The regulator chose the lesser of two evils.

— Which ones exactly?

— In fact, the situation in the economy is twofold. On the one hand, the high rate generally slows down economic growth due to the high cost of loans and private investment. Here, it would seem, it makes sense to lower the rate. But, on the other hand, the high interest rate restrains inflation, since with expensive loans, demand for goods and services shrinks, and, accordingly, sellers have fewer opportunities to raise prices. And the Central Bank of the Russian Federation believes that the main thing is to restrain prices, to achieve a sustainable reduction in inflation even at the cost of slowing economic growth. Yes, inflation has slowed down. According to Rosstat, as of April 21, it was at 10.34% year-on-year and has not increased for several weeks, including due to the long-term effect of the high key rate.

— How stable can this situation be called?

— It is too early to talk about stability. Unfortunately, there are many factors that can provoke price growth. For example, new trade wars in the world can lead to a slowdown in the global economy, a decrease in demand and prices for resources that are traditional Russian export goods.

The budget is calculated on the price of Russian Urals export oil at $69.7 per barrel, but in April it fell to $53. This reduces the receipts of funds to the federal budget, increases its deficit and causes the need to increase the money supply, which will raise prices. The population's inflation expectations are also high: in April, they rose to 13.1% from 12.9% in March. This means that people assume that prices will grow faster, and this factor really leads to their increase. For example, expecting that prices will increase by the end of summer, people go to stores and make purchases that they could postpone until after the holidays - say, buying household appliances - in the spring. Demand grows from this, and prices move up. Therefore, in such circumstances, the lesser evil is to keep the key rate high.

— So how will this affect the economy?

— Again, it’s twofold. On the one hand, a high key rate acts as a factor in weakening inflation, on the other hand, it becomes a driver of slowing GDP growth.

— The current period of high rates is the longest in modern history. Nevertheless, Russia's GDP growth last year was 4.1%, exceeding forecasts. Why are the results more modest this year?

— Last year, the increase in GDP was supported mainly by a sharp increase in budget investments, investments and production due to government orders. In addition, in 2024, GDP was compared with the previous year, when economic growth was low. Now the situation is more complicated. Here is the cumulative effect of the long-term preservation of a high rate, and an unfavorable external situation, and a shortage of personnel in many industries, and a comparison of statistics in 2025 with 2024, when there was a noticeable rise. In the first quarter of 2025, GDP growth in annual terms amounted to 1.9% and in general for the year it can be 1.5-2%.

"By the end of the year we will see 100 rubles per dollar"

— Previously, the ruble always reacted clearly to the regulator's decision on the key rate. However, today, its dynamics require looking at other factors. Which of them have become decisive?

— For the ruble, the high key rate is one of the factors of strengthening, in particular, because it increases the profitability of investments in rubles, their attractiveness, and reduces the demand for currency. But this factor is limited due to the fact that many foreign investors do not work on the Russian market. The main reasons for supporting the ruble are now related to the peculiarities of foreign trade. Imports are limited due to sanctions, due to the same high interest rate on loans, which means that we have less demand for foreign currencies, which restrains their exchange rate. In addition, the ruble is supported by hopes for peace talks between Russia and Ukraine.

But on the other hand, the strengthening of the domestic currency in recent months from 115 rubles per dollar at its peak to 82 rubles this week limits export revenues, reducing not only the revenue of exporting companies, but also budget revenues and reserve funds.

— And what does this mean in practice?

— This situation will stimulate financial authorities to limit the strength of the ruble. For example, the cancellation of mandatory sale of foreign currency earnings by exporters to reduce the supply of currency and increase its rate is already being discussed. In addition, the ruble will be negatively affected by the seasonal summer tourist demand for currency, as well as the very likely reduction of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation rate during the year. In general, we can expect a gradual weakening of the domestic currency to 90 rubles per dollar in the coming months. And by about the end of the year, we will most likely see 100 rubles per unit of the American currency.

— Why is the profitability of bank deposits constantly declining, despite the regulator’s decision to keep the key rate unchanged?

— Indeed, the key rate is currently at its maximum, but as inflation weakens, the Central Bank of the Russian Federation will begin to reduce it. If inflation is stable, the population's inflation expectations, which are extremely important for the Bank of Russia, will gradually decrease. The beginning of the rate cut may also be timed to coincide with the traditional summer-autumn season of slower price growth.

Here, a lot depends on two types of factors. Firstly, on internal factors, which include the state of the economy and the need to stimulate it. Secondly, on external factors - contradictory and unpredictable interweaving of geopolitical, sanction circumstances, prospects for trade wars, negotiations between Russia and Ukraine... The Central Bank will have to choose between two extremely controversial alternatives each time: should the "key" be lowered or should it be waited for.

— What advice can you give to Russians in such conditions? What strategy for saving and increasing their funds should they choose?

— It is best to divide savings by terms, instruments, currencies. If we talk about investments in rubles, now there is a good opportunity to fix a high yield even for a long period, which is hardly possible with deposits. Interest on deposits will decrease as the key rate decreases, and banks are already reluctant to give a high interest rate for a long term. But you can buy, for example, federal loan bonds (OFZ). This can be easily done through a brokerage account in a bank or investment company. Their reliability is no less than that of deposits, since they are also guaranteed by the state. But you can buy bonds for a long term — not only for a year, but also for five and 10 years. And the high interest on them that exists now will remain for all this time. In addition, when the Central Bank of the Russian Federation rate decreases, these bonds themselves will grow in price, unlike the fixed amount of deposits. Thus, you can receive income from both the remaining high interest on bonds and from the rise in price of these securities themselves. And if necessary, you can sell them on the market without waiting for the maturity date.

— How can citizens use the cheap dollar? Buy it now and wait until the end of summer, when it will go up and earn money? Or is it better not to deal with this currency at all?

— Yes, now is a good time to distribute your savings. You can do them not only in rubles, but also in other currencies. It partially makes sense to buy hard currency in cash — dollars, preferably not the old model, as well as euros. As a non-cash savings, that is, creating a deposit on an account, it is better to consider, for example, buying yuan. This currency has low sanction risks. The low exchange rate can also be used to buy replacement bonds for rubles (these are the securities of Russian companies issued to replace Eurobonds, their face value and coupons are expressed in foreign currency, and payments are made in rubles — MK ): they are tied to the dollar and euro exchange rates. As these “unfriendly” currencies become more expensive, the ruble value of such securities will also grow.